Macro Currents, This Week in Charts
This edition presents the Weekly Macro Snapshot in Charts, distilling shifting growth impulses, price dynamics, labor momentum, policy expectations, and cross‑asset signals into a focused, visual narrative. Each chart is paired with plain‑spoken takeaways, short stories from the trading desk, and practical context you can use before markets open. Join the conversation, challenge the interpretations, and suggest metrics you want tracked next week; your questions shape what gets highlighted and how we pressure‑test the signal beneath the noise.
Growth and Activity Pulse
We track the economy’s heartbeat through purchasing managers’ surveys, high‑frequency mobility, electricity usage, and nowcasts that translate scattered data into an evolving probability path for output. Rather than chase one headline, we triangulate several timely gauges, highlighting when divergences are meaningful and when they reflect calendar quirks. Expect frank notes about signal quality, revisions risk, and which sectors are quietly accelerating even while aggregate figures look flat. Share your preferred activity proxies, and we will add them to next week’s panel.
PMIs and Nowcasts
Manufacturing softness often masks resilient services, so we juxtapose composite PMIs with model‑based GDP nowcasts to see whether sentiment aligns with realized output. A supply manager’s comment about delayed inputs can matter as much as a diffusion index. We annotate inflection points, flag data vintage issues, and explain when a single large component swing is distorting the headline. If you rely on regional surveys for timing, tell us which ones, and we will chart their lead‑lag against national prints.
Surprise Index and Revision Patterns
Economic Surprise Index swings can excite markets, but we pair them with revision heatmaps to separate enduring momentum from one‑off beats. A positive surprise followed by negative revisions is a different signal than consistently firm reports. We also examine whether seasonal adjustments are amplifying normal volatility. Send us the indicators that keep fooling your expectations; together we can test whether the surprise metrics are truly predictive or merely descriptive of shifting consensus.
Household and Small Business Activity
Credit‑card spending, small‑business hiring plans, and new business applications reveal ground‑level vitality that headline GDP can miss. When a local café extends hours and a contractor accelerates equipment orders, it shows up here first. We highlight geographic dispersion, urban‑suburban splits, and category shifts from goods to experiences. If you are seeing changes in foot traffic or bookings, reply with observations; anecdotes help interpret whether a blip is seasonal or a genuine change in behavior.
Prices and Inflation Trajectory
Inflation is a story told in layers: volatile energy, sticky services, shelter lags, and forward pipelines. We unpack each layer with transparent measures, explaining why a cool headline can coexist with stubborn core pressures. Freight, rents, and wages feed through on different clocks. Our charts highlight the clockwork and the mismatches. Alongside numbers, you will see real examples from retailers, landlords, and logistics managers. Share where you are noticing price relief or pain; the collective read improves our priors.
Jobs, Wages, and Participation
Labor markets steer both consumption and policy. We pull together payrolls, hours, quits, and participation to show whether demand for workers is easing or simply normalizing. Wage growth across income tiers reveals how spending power is evolving beneath aggregates. We treat headline beats with humility, highlighting composition effects and temporary distortions. Stories from recruiters and HR teams enrich the interpretation. If your company’s hiring pipeline shifted lately, share details; lived experience helps decode what the next prints might show.
Payrolls, Underemployment, and Hours
We compare payroll growth with underemployment, temporary help, and average weekly hours to detect turning points that a single headline may hide. Shorter hours can foreshadow cooler demand without outright job losses. Our charts emphasize breadth across sectors and firm sizes, noting where hospitality, manufacturing, and tech diverge. If you track regional labor tightness, tell us which metro surveys matter most, and we will map them against national aggregates to assess diffusion.
Wage Gauges and Job Switching
Wage dynamics hinge on bargaining power and job switching. We plot measures of quits, internal promotion rates, and posted pay ranges to see whether momentum persists. When job switching slows, wage pressure often follows with a lag. Recruiters tell us counteroffers have moderated, matching our charts. We also explore how bonuses versus base pay affect take‑home resilience. Suggest niche datasets you trust, and we will validate their historical reliability and sensitivity to cyclical turns.
Policy Paths and Communication
Implied paths extracted from futures, swaps, and options condense countless expectations into a timeline. We compare that timeline with central bank communication to judge credibility and potential surprise. When optionality dominates, we note skew and path‑dependency. A strategist said the silence between meetings often speaks loudest; our annotations capture those quiet shifts. If a speech or press conference changed your view, send a clip or quote, and we will chart the market response that followed.
Yield Curve and Term Premium
The curve’s shape reflects growth, inflation, and liquidity, but also risk compensation. We estimate term premium and show how balance‑sheet dynamics influence longer maturities. An inversion can be about more than recession odds; breadth, volatility, and supply matter. We mark auction outcomes and demand from price‑sensitive buyers. If you focus on specific tenors, tell us where your pain points lie, and we will zoom into those segments with historical context and stress episodes.
Risk Assets and Cross‑Asset Signals
Equities, credit, commodities, and volatility communicate the macro story in real time. We read breadth, factor leadership, earnings revisions, and spreads to assess whether price behavior confirms the fundamental trajectory. When price disagrees with data, we ask why—positioning, supply, or optimism. We also capture investor psychology through sentiment and flows. If you manage portfolios, tell us which indicators change your risk budget; we will feature them and test their track record around turning points.
Global Trade, Supply Chains, and Energy Crosswinds
Trade routes, factory orders, and energy markets tie the world’s macro rhythm together. We track shipping rates, delivery times, and inventory swings to catch bottlenecks early. Energy prices act as both tax and tailwind, with regional differences shaping outcomes. We complement the charts with voices from shippers and procurement teams. If you operate in logistics or manufacturing, your on‑the‑ground feedback will sharpen our interpretation and help prioritize which corridors or commodities to spotlight next week.
All Rights Reserved.